China, as you know, is a huge country with a rapidly growing population approaching 1.5 billion. human. Even now, this circumstance has a serious impact on the country's development and causes a number of acute problems.

Worsening of the employment problem

Since the 1950s, China has seen two bursts in the birth rate. The first one took place from 1954 to 1957. At that time, the number of newborns annually exceeded 20 million. The second period was from 1962 to 1975 (during this period there were even years when more than 25 million newborns were born). Data from the third Chinese census show that even in 1981, after 10 years of planned parenthood, the number of newborns per year was 20.7 million. With a very low mortality rate in the 0-14-year-old population-from the late 70s to 1996 (excluding 1994-1995) - more than 20 million people were of working age in China every year.

As a result, already in 1990, the number of labor resources here was 754.5 million, or 65.6% of the total population; among them, about 614 million people were socially employed. Annual growth was on average 4.8% and 5.16%, respectively. In 1996, the number of people of working age increased to 850 million and by the end of this century will exceed 900 million people. It can be noted that the working-age population in China has the following characteristics: scale; rapid growth; a significant share in the total population; a long period of continuous growth.

A large number of able-bodied people has a positive side only if the number of workers corresponds to the level of socio-economic development of the country and provided that the society has sufficient funds, resources and equipment to ensure employment. In China, where these conditions do not yet exist, it is a burden, a "bomb" for society. Here, in the labor market, supply constantly exceeds demand. Obviously, China will still face the problem of employment for quite a long period. Its "pressure" will exacerbate the contradiction between "equality" and "efficiency" and hinder reforms in the public economy.

On the one hand, the Chinese authorities need peace and stability of society. Therefore, the issue of social equality is very important and sensitive. The slightest carelessness in dealing with this issue can cause unrest in society. On the other hand, if China wants to build a market economy, it is necessary to use the mechanism of competition and economic efficiency. It is necessary to create a single labor market in order to ensure sufficient development, correct and efficient distribution of labor resources. But at a time when the market economy is still developing, there is no improvement in the labor market and social security systems. Therefore, there are still major obstacles to achieving the above-mentioned goals.

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The pressure from the employment problem is mainly caused by the surplus of labor in the village. Addressing the issue of excessive labor in rural areas has already become a crucial factor in determining the success of rural reforms. This led to a choice: either let the peasants enter the cities, which will again lead to problems, or limit their relocation here and, ultimately, limit the development of the village.

Problems of public education

Many of the problems that exist in China are largely caused by the low level of education of the population. According to statistics, 23.5 % of the country's residents are illiterate or semi-literate. By 1982, 32 years after the establishment of the PRC, the population had increased by 566 million, and only 325.2 million people were educated: 157.1 million at the primary school level, 52.5 million at the 2nd stage of secondary school, 5.8 million at the technical school level, 3.18 million at higher education. According to the 4th Chinese Census, as of July 1, 1990, the population over the age of 12 had an average of 5.5 years of education. There were 182,350 million illiterate and semi-illiterate people aged 15 and over who had completed primary education, accounting for 47 % of the country's total population. 170 million people received secondary education. The share of persons with higher education was only 0.6 %, university students-0.12 % of the total population. If we take the number of students as one, then the proportion between students, middle school students, and primary school students is 1: 50: 128. This means that the percentage of people entering from primary school to secondary school is low, and from secondary school to university is even lower.

The current lag in education will undoubtedly affect the further development of the economy and society as a whole. According to foreign studies, half of the national income of the United States is the result of increased education of the labor force. According to research conducted in Japan, the degree of education of workers affects technical transformation: if the level of education of workers rises by one class, then the level of technology-by 6 %. In Japan, increased investment in the education system from 1930 to 1955 resulted in a 25% increase in national income. Generally, the lower the level of education, the lower the national income of a country.

Thus, the low educational level of the population is an important factor that negatively affects the socio - economic development of China. Rapid population growth has prevented the accumulation of material resources and investment in education. In 1965, China spent 19.96 yuan per primary school student and 88.89 yuan per secondary school student per year. By 1978, due to the increase in the population, annual spending had decreased to 12.61 and 37.57 yuan, respectively.

Increase in maintenance costs for the elderly

At the end of 1996, there were about 130 million people aged 60 and over in China -about 10 % of the total population. According to the UN, if the number of people aged 60 and over is more than 10 % of the total population, then this country is a "country with an elderly population". Thus, China is among such countries. Over the next 40 years, the number of older Chinese people will increase by more than 3% annually. By 2025, the number of older Chinese people will increase by more than 3%. it will amount to over 300 million people, or more than 20 % of the total population. In 2035, the share of elderly people will rise to 27 %, i.e. every 4th person in the country will be elderly.

Along with an increase in the proportion of older people in the total population, their dependency ratio is also increasing, which means an increase in the number of elderly people in the total population.

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economic burden. In 1988, the number of retired people was 18 million (14 % of the working population), and pension costs were 18 billion rubles. RMB. By 2000, there will be more than 40 million pensioners, or 17% of the working population. If we proceed from the current pension payment standards, then the cost of them will increase to 50 billion rubles. RMB. In industrialized cities, population ageing is already a serious problem. For example, in Shanghai at the end of 1986, the number of pensioners exceeded 1.38 million, which was about 28.3 % of the working population of the city.

The aging of the population will affect the distribution and redistribution of national income, the economic system and its development as a whole. In 1984, Chinese retirees received an average monthly pension of 769 yuan. These expenses are 5 times more than the expenses for children in Chinese cities. This shows that the distribution and redistribution of national income is changing along with the acceleration of the rate of population aging. The proportions between spending and capital accumulation are also changing.

China has mostly a traditional family structure. Today, only 4 % of people aged 60 and over live separately. But as the population ages, the family structure will change. According to preliminary estimates, by the end of this century, the number of individual families of elderly people and families of the "4 : 2 : I" type will increase. And the new family structure will introduce new requirements for housing conditions.

Hindrances to the country's economic development and improvement of people's lives

The huge number of the population and its rapid increase affects the dynamics of economic development. According to statistics, China's national income in 1950 was about $ 41 billion. RMB335 billion in 1979 . The average annual growth rate was about 7.3 %. But due to the increase in the population from 540 million to 970 million, the increase in national income per capita averaged 9 yuan per year. In the same period, the country's financial income increased from 6i5 billion. up to 110.3 billion rubles. The growth rate averaged 10.2 %. However, the increase in financial income per capita averaged only 3.5 yuan per year. The huge size of the population and the high rate of its growth lead to an increase in the number of people in need of maintenance, especially children and students, which slows down both the growth rate of national income per capita and the increase in family income. In 1979, Chinese research institutions calculated the necessary maintenance costs for one person up to the age of 16. Under the conditions of that time, they amounted to 2,214 yuan; of these, government spending was 610 yuan, and family spending was 1,604 yuan. Due to the large number of newborns, on average, 58% of the increase in consumption went to the needs of this category of the population and 42% - to the needs of other age groups.

Lack of living space

China has a large territory, but its geographical conditions are mostly unfavorable for people's lives. Arid and semi-arid areas account for 31 % and 22 % (a total of 53%). According to the third Chinese Census, 20.3 % of the inhabitants settled in areas above 500 m. from sea level. The poverty of some areas is largely due to difficult living conditions that have limited their development. Optimal population growth can occur only in a certain living space. The abilities of the environment are not unlimited. Chinese scientists estimate that the maximum allowable population in China is 1.5 - 1.6 billion. human. Currently, it is already equal to 1.3 billion rubles. human.

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Food shortage

After the establishment of the PRC in a short period of time, it became one of the leading countries in the production of basic agricultural products. Today, China already ranks first in the world in terms of the amount of grain, meat, and rapeseed produced. The volume of grain production in China increased from 113.2 million tons in 1949 to 394 million tons in 1988, i.e. 2.5 times. Grain production per hectare also increased 2.5 times during this period. This is a huge pace of development. The volume of production of basic agricultural products per person increased slightly. This again depends on the population of the country.

Due to the low volume of production per capita, the bulk of grain is used to feed people. And this creates difficulties for cattle breeding. Pork, beef and lamb production is 22.4% lower than the global average. Egg production is 17.2 % lower than the global average. The volume of production of aquatic products is 60.5% lower than the global average. In the future, it will be difficult to maintain even such a low level, because the country's population is steadily increasing by about 17 million people a year, and at the same time the need for grain is increasing. With a small area of untilled land that can still be cultivated, the solution to the problem of grain begins to depend more and more on increasing production per unit area. But the potential increase in production per unit area is not unlimited.

Let's assume that the average level of human consumption of grain in China reaches the average level of the United States in 1982-1464 kg (in 1982 in the United States grain production per person was 2164 kg, the amount of export grain-more than 700 kg per person). In this case, the volume of production per hectare should be at least 33733 kg. This number is 6 times higher than the highest grain productivity in the world. Of course, it is difficult to count on achieving such high grain productivity. Even today, China's grain production per hectare is significantly higher than that of the United States.

Worsening of the crisis related to the lack of arable land

In 1949, the area of arable land of the PRC was 97.91 million hectares, which was 10.09 % of the total land area. Due to the huge production activity of the peasants after the liberation from feudalism, as well as the relocation of the population to the north-west and north-east of the country and the development of virgin lands, the area of arable land in the country gradually increased until 1957, reaching 112.85 million hectares. In the future, the increase stopped. The reasons for this are as follows.

First, more and more land was allocated for construction. Population growth necessarily leads to an increase in the number of homes. Moreover, the house is the most important property and investment of the Chinese peasants. According to data from 1985, the total area of peasant houses in the whole country occupied 0.97 million hectares, which reduced arable land by 5.6 %. In the southern provinces of the country, from 1978 to 1980, more than 2/5 of the land was removed from arable land and used for construction. In Guangdong Province, for example, over 10 years, the area of arable land has decreased by 266800 hectares, and now there are 0.04 hectares per person. According to preliminary calculations, the annual area occupied for construction in the next decade will be about 6670 hectares. In addition to construction, significant areas are allocated for cemeteries in the country, which cover more than 66700 hectares.

Secondly, there is a shift of arable land to meadows and forests, which is also one of the important factors affecting the reduction of its area. In 1985, 933800 hectares of arable land were allocated for forests and meadows all over the country; in 1987, -

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366183 ha; in 1989-233249.9 ha. From 1957 to 1996, China's population increased by 650 million people, and the area of arable land per person decreased by 0.032 hectares.

If at the same time as China's population growth, arable land decreases, as in the previous 39 years, then the area of arable land will decrease to 73.56 million hectares. The area of arable land per person will decrease to 0.0434 hectares. Due to the fact that there is almost no non-arable land left for development in China, reducing the area of arable land will be a net loss that will never be recovered.

Worsening of the resource shortage crisis

China's freshwater resources of about 2 billion 640 billion m3 are the fifth largest in the world after Brazil, the former Soviet Union, Canada and the United States. However, the population is so large that China ranks 110th among other countries in the world in terms of the amount of water per person. The amount of water per person here is only 2500 m3 and is equal to 1/5 of the global average.

Today, one person in China spends an average of 18.14 m3 per year (with 36.25 m3 in urban areas and 14.57 m3 in rural areas). In the future, along with the growth of construction, the share of the urban population will increase, which means that the amount of water consumed will increase accordingly. According to preliminary calculations, in 2000 the water consumption per person will be 2 times higher than now, i.e. 36 m3 per year.

Agricultural costs are the most significant and account for 80 % of the total water consumption. They can be calculated based on the requirements for obtaining 1 kilogram of grain. In 1978, China consumed 1.14 m3 of water per kilogram of grain, the United States - 0.90 m3, and Japan-2.38 m3.According to preliminary calculations, by 2000, as a result of increased control over water consumption, this figure will decrease to 1 m3.

Industrial water consumption can be calculated based on the cost of manufactured products. Now in Beijing, the water consumption for every 10 thousand yuan of products produced is 400 m3, in Japan-300 m3.

In 1980, China's water consumption reached 440 billion cubic meters. m3 and by 2000 it should be increased by another 260-310 billion, i.e. by almost 65 %. Meanwhile, water scarcity is already 100 billion m3 per year. In 1979, 154 cities were experiencing water scarcity, and by 1984 their number had increased to 188 (more than half of the country's 300 largest cities). The main reason for this is that after the creation of the People's Republic of China, the population increased 4-5 times, the country's industry developed significantly; hence, a significant increase in water demand.

The resources of China's forests, grasslands, and minerals are quite extensive. Their reserves are among the first in the world, but per person they are small.

Due to the growing population of the country every day, the need for energy sources is rapidly increasing. It is estimated that 900 million farmers in China use natural energy sources (of which 300 million use forest resources). On the other hand, one of the ways to increase the area of arable land is to destroy forests. So, after the creation of the PRC, the annual decrease in the jungle area is 14674 hectares. The share of the territory covered by forests decreased from 55.7 % to 30 %. In Sichuan province, the same indicator fell even more - from 20 % to 13 %. All this caused serious environmental disturbances and natural disasters. According to estimates, over the past 10 years, the area of forests has decreased by another 23.1 %. It decreases simultaneously with the increase in the population and the development of production. By the end of this century, the volume of almost mature forest for logging will decrease from 2.6 billion m3 to 1.2 billion m3, and there will be no mature forest at all.

The area of grasslands in China is 319.08 million hectares, of which 224.34 million. ha are suitable, their area occupies the 3rd place in the world. The average area per person is 30 % of the global average. After the creation of the PRC area

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The number of destroyed meadows exceeded 6.67 million hectares, hence the number of high-quality pastures decreased, while the number of livestock increased. Excessive plowing and pastoralism caused the grasslands to degenerate into deserts.

China also has rich mineral resources. Currently, more than 150 species of them have been found. The reserves of coal, iron, tin, gold, silver, phosphorus, titanium, zinc, and lead found in China are the largest in the world. But due to the huge population size, the natural resources reserves per person are very small.

Environmental destruction and pollution

Continuous population growth puts enormous pressure on the environment. There are already signs that show that the current number of Chinese residents is approaching the limit. And in some areas of the country, it even exceeds the limit of the "endurance" of the ecological system. Together with the increase in the number of people, their total basic needs also increase. In order to reduce the discrepancy between human needs and their provision with the environment, a new enhanced development of nature is required. The result is predictable-large-scale destruction of the environment and serious environmental pollution.

Among all environmental disasters, soil erosion is the most serious. Today, the area of China's land exposed to soil erosion is 1.6 million km2, or 1/6 of the total area of the country. The area of land that turns into deserts every year is about 2,100 km2. Shrinking forests, grasslands, and excessive mining have caused the destruction of the ecological system and natural disasters that cause direct economic damage of $ 40-60 billion annually. RMB. This significantly affects the country's economic development and social stability.

Environmental pollution is increasing every day. It is divided into vital and industrial pollution, and industrial pollution is also divided into industrial and agricultural. Take industrial pollution, for example. After the creation of the PRC, 15-20 million people were born annually, and the number of workers increased. Existing then about 400 thousand enterprises could not provide work for the masses of new citizens, and therefore many new enterprises appeared in cities and villages. Their total number reached 1.5 million. These enterprises, which usually have backward technologies and equipment, are not able to take any measures to protect the environment. In the country, 85 % of industrial wastewater and 80 % of industrial waste, as well as most of the exhaust gas is released directly, without treatment, into the environment, which creates a very serious situation. In 1981, exhaust gases contained 42 million tons of various toxic and harmful substances, and wastewater-30.3 billion tons of similar substances. The annual amount of various industrial wastes is about 430 million tons. In general, for all the years after the creation of the PRC, the amount of industrial waste amounted to more than 5 billion. The current situation in China in terms of environmental pollution by large and medium-sized enterprises has not yet been properly assessed, and pollution by small enterprises continues to increase.

So, the problem of population growth in China is the most complex and acute problem in the state. It affects the lives of people and industries, the existence and development of society, political stabilization and economic prosperity, affects not only the government and the country's leadership, but the entire society and each individual, affects not only current generations, but also future ones. Therefore, it should be given appropriate attention.

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